On Sat, 30 Oct 2004 00:26:52 -0400, Kevin Gowen
<kgowenNOSPAM@myfastmail.com> wrote:

>> These polls are conducted by phone and don't reflect/reach
>> cellphone-carrying voters of the teen to mid 20s age range at all. I
>> think it's quite dangerous to count them out this time around because
>> they are mobilized as never before. 

>I love how the "cellphone voter" is being touted the past few weeks. 
>Whatever it takes to help you sleep at night.

Now you're the one who sounds a little nervous, Kev. I just read the
news, I don't make it up.

>I see no evidence of youth mobilization, nor am I inclined to believe 
>that youngsters lean liberal. Indeed, the numbers suggest that the Roe 
>Effect is in force.

>For example, this survey for "Rock The Vote" shows Bush leading Kerry by 
>four points:
>http://appserv.pace.edu/emplibrary/pace_poll_102604.pdf
>"New voters are religious. More than 4 in 10 (41%) attend religious 
>services at least once a week, and an additional 15% attend church once 
>or twice a month. Thirty-eight percent consider themselves "born-again" 
>or “evangelicals" (compared to 23% nationwide, according to Gallup).

There you go with the polls again. I just said there is no way for
pollsters to effectively reach cellphone only voters.

>"Bush seems to be gaining ground among new voters as the campaign 
>proceeds. His support has climbed 8 points in a two-candidate race (from 
>40% in July to 48% now). Meanwhile, Kerry’s support has slipped 6 points 
>(from 50% in July to 44% today)."

>http://tinyurl.com/43ojo was also a quaint article.

>Like I said, don't hang your hat on new voters. You will lose.

Like I said, unless you're Nostradamus you can bang on your chest all
you like. Only Tuesday will tell.

>> You must admit that cellphone usage has skyrocketed in the past 4
>> years and that it is especially popular among those voters who are not
>> likely to be reached for polling in any other way.

>Since I have no knowledge of the rate of cellphone usage over the past 
>four year or the demographic statistics of cellphone users, I must admit 
>nothing.

Well, I'm sorry I credited you with enough basic intelligence to
realize that the rate of cellphone usage has increased exponentially
in the past 4 years not just here in Japan but in the US as well.

My apologies on that.

>> http://tinyurl.com/64r32

>> I would have to assume the winner gets the Presidency next January
>> 20th. 

>I have not yet reached the constitutionally required age of 35 years.

Well fortunately the candidates for President both have. As for you I
wouldn't be surprised if you said you hadn't reached voting age period
judging by the average maturity level of your posts to this group.

Raj