Raj Feridun wrote:
> On Sat, 30 Oct 2004 00:26:52 -0400, Kevin Gowen
> <kgowenNOSPAM@myfastmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
>>>These polls are conducted by phone and don't reflect/reach
>>>cellphone-carrying voters of the teen to mid 20s age range at all. I
>>>think it's quite dangerous to count them out this time around because
>>>they are mobilized as never before. 
> 
> 
>>I love how the "cellphone voter" is being touted the past few weeks. 
>>Whatever it takes to help you sleep at night.
> 
> 
> Now you're the one who sounds a little nervous, Kev. I just read the
> news, I don't make it up.

I never thought of Arianna Huffington's column as "the news".

>>I see no evidence of youth mobilization, nor am I inclined to believe 
>>that youngsters lean liberal. Indeed, the numbers suggest that the Roe 
>>Effect is in force.
> 
> 
>>For example, this survey for "Rock The Vote" shows Bush leading Kerry by 
>>four points:
>>http://appserv.pace.edu/emplibrary/pace_poll_102604.pdf
>>"New voters are religious. More than 4 in 10 (41%) attend religious 
>>services at least once a week, and an additional 15% attend church once 
>>or twice a month. Thirty-eight percent consider themselves "born-again" 
>>or “evangelicals" (compared to 23% nationwide, according to Gallup).
> 
> 
> There you go with the polls again. I just said there is no way for
> pollsters to effectively reach cellphone only voters.

There is also no way for pollsters to effectively reach the deaf and the 
  extremely rural. This is part of that "margin of error" polls tend to 
have. Pollsters realize that they cannot reach every demographic group. 
This fact does not make polls useless.

>>"Bush seems to be gaining ground among new voters as the campaign 
>>proceeds. His support has climbed 8 points in a two-candidate race (from 
>>40% in July to 48% now). Meanwhile, Kerry’s support has slipped 6 points 
>>(from 50% in July to 44% today)."
> 
> 
>>http://tinyurl.com/43ojo was also a quaint article.
> 
> 
>>Like I said, don't hang your hat on new voters. You will lose.
> 
> 
> Like I said, unless you're Nostradamus you can bang on your chest all
> you like. Only Tuesday will tell.

No one is chest-banging. I am simply pointing out that the Roe Effect 
seems to be evidencing itself.

>>>You must admit that cellphone usage has skyrocketed in the past 4
>>>years and that it is especially popular among those voters who are not
>>>likely to be reached for polling in any other way.
> 
> 
>>Since I have no knowledge of the rate of cellphone usage over the past 
>>four year or the demographic statistics of cellphone users, I must admit 
>>nothing.
> 
> 
> Well, I'm sorry I credited you with enough basic intelligence to
> realize that the rate of cellphone usage has increased exponentially
> in the past 4 years not just here in Japan but in the US as well.
> 
> My apologies on that.

What does intelligence have to do with the knowledge of a given fact? If 
you have information on the rate of cellphone usage in the United States 
  from 2000 to 2004, bring it forth. It would also be nice if you have 
demographic information on cellphone-only households.

"Somewhere out there, there are people who don't own landline phones, 
and they will save the day!"

>>>http://tinyurl.com/64r32
> 
> 
>>>I would have to assume the winner gets the Presidency next January
>>>20th. 
> 
> 
>>I have not yet reached the constitutionally required age of 35 years.
> 
> 
> Well fortunately the candidates for President both have. As for you I
> wouldn't be surprised if you said you hadn't reached voting age period
> judging by the average maturity level of your posts to this group.

And yet, you were whooshed.

- Kevin