Raj Feridun wrote:
> On Fri, 29 Oct 2004 23:22:27 -0400, Kevin Gowen
> <kgowenNOSPAM@myfastmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
>>>I absolutely understand that that this is historically the case in the
>>>US, Kevin. I'm also confident, however, that this year will be
>>>different. I believe young voters will be voting in record numbers. 
> 
> 
>>As James Carville said, "You know what they call a candidate who's 
>>counting on a lot of new voters? A loser."
> 
> 
> Carville's a liberal loudmouth. 

I agree. He is very good at his job, though.

> I don't know when he made that quote
> but I'd guess it was in a prior election. This one promises to be
> unique.
> 
> 
>>I found the following report encouraging:
>>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/VoterDecisionTime.htm
> 
> 
> These polls are conducted by phone and don't reflect/reach
> cellphone-carrying voters of the teen to mid 20s age range at all. I
> think it's quite dangerous to count them out this time around because
> they are mobilized as never before. 

I love how the "cellphone voter" is being touted the past few weeks. 
Whatever it takes to help you sleep at night.

I see no evidence of youth mobilization, nor am I inclined to believe 
that youngsters lean liberal. Indeed, the numbers suggest that the Roe 
Effect is in force.

For example, this survey for "Rock The Vote" shows Bush leading Kerry by 
four points:
http://appserv.pace.edu/emplibrary/pace_poll_102604.pdf
"New voters are religious. More than 4 in 10 (41%) attend religious 
services at least once a week, and an additional 15% attend church once 
or twice a month. Thirty-eight percent consider themselves "born-again" 
or “evangelicals" (compared to 23% nationwide, according to Gallup).

New voters are slightly more conservative than liberal. Twenty-three 
percent consider themselves “liberals" while an additional 7% describe 
themselves as "moderate liberals." On net, therefore, 30% of new voters 
say they are political liberals. In contrast, 29% of first-timers 
consider themselves to be "conservative," and an additional 8% say they 
are "moderate conservatives." On net, therefore, 37% are political 
conservatives."

"Bush seems to be gaining ground among new voters as the campaign 
proceeds. His support has climbed 8 points in a two-candidate race (from 
40% in July to 48% now). Meanwhile, Kerry’s support has slipped 6 points 
(from 50% in July to 44% today)."

http://tinyurl.com/43ojo was also a quaint article.

Like I said, don't hang your hat on new voters. You will lose.

> You must admit that cellphone usage has skyrocketed in the past 4
> years and that it is especially popular among those voters who are not
> likely to be reached for polling in any other way.

Since I have no knowledge of the rate of cellphone usage over the past 
four year or the demographic statistics of cellphone users, I must admit 
nothing.

> http://tinyurl.com/64r32
> 
>>>Anyway, there's no sense in arguing about it. let's see who was right
>>>next Tuesday.
> 
> 
>>What does the winner get besides bragging rights? (and in my case, more 
>>tax cuts)
> 
> 
> I would have to assume the winner gets the Presidency next January
> 20th. 

I have not yet reached the constitutionally required age of 35 years.

- Kevin