On Wed, 1 Dec 2004 00:09:17 +1300, "Adam Whyte-Settlar"
<grawillers@hotmail.com> wrote:

>
>"westprog" <westprog@hotmail.com> wrote in message
>news:ChEqd.42843$Z14.18390@news.indigo.ie...
>>
>> "Adam Whyte-Settlar" <grawillers@hotmail.com> wrote in message
>> news:b5dqd.7797$3U4.240799@news02.tsnz.net...
>> ...
>> > You have a point re: CPU's but the Chinese already make just about
>> > everything else.
>>
>> Chipsets? Disk drives? RAM?
>>
>> I have no idea, apart from CPU's, which very few companies can keep up
>with.
>>
>
>Dunno neever is the short answer.
>But to get back to my original point that the US won't necessarily benefit
>hugely from China's expansion, Morgan Stanley has this to say:
>
>"China exports manufactured goods and imports raw materials and equipment.
>The US is not strong in the goods that China imports.

Right, due in part to China's utter disregard to intellectual property laws.
What China has going for it is state sponsored piracy.  Japan used to be
that way, too, when it was first emerging as an economic power.  Eventually,
they saw that such behavior was inimical to their own interests and that
there are quasi-legal ways to exploit foreign markets.

>The US trade deficit ultimately depends on the distribution of savings rates
>versus ToT in the global economy.  Natural resource economies are gaining in
>terms of ToT.  If they don't increase their consumption preference, they
>will run rising trade surpluses.  As the US consumption preference is rising
>faster relative to its ToT, the trade deficit also is rising"

Morgan Stanley seems to have a wonderful grasp of the obvious.  BTW, what is
ToT?

>The Whitehouse says:
>http://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/mankiw_testimony_house_ways_and_means_oct_30.h
>tml
>
>"This growth in Chinese imports into the United States has resulted in
>imbalanced trade between the United States and China. The U.S. trade deficit
>with China in goods is large and more than doubled between 1995 and 2000. So
>far this year, [2003] the U.S. has a $125 billion (annualized) deficit with
>China, our single largest bilateral trade deficit."
>
>"Computers and electronics, machinery, and metals account for half of the
>swing in manufacturing production from its rapid growth of the late 1990s to
>its decline after mid-2000."
>
>This distorts the picture somewhat as US exports to China *have* increased
>but not by much and total 'only'  $25billion - about a fifth of the value of
>US imports from China.
>Time will tell I guess.
>A W-S

Like I said, this might end up in a round of global trade wars and
protectionism like we've never seen before.

MacHamish M$(D??(Br