Eric Takabayashi wrote:
> mtfester@netscape.net wrote:
> 
>>Eric Takabayashi <etakajp@yahoo.co.jp> wrote:
>>
>>>"John W." wrote:
>>
>>>>Eric Takabayashi wrote:
>>>
>>>>Of course, it doesn't have to be this way. If the CAFE (sp) standards
>>>>were the same across the board, or more even handed (and this is
>>>>possible), the US wouldn't be so dependent. Besides, there are other
>>>>sources of oil; I remember a story some years ago that said Russian
>>>>oil reserves could easily fill our needs.
>>>
>>>Is it cheaper? Are the known reserves as large as those in Saudi Arabia or Iraq?
>>
>>Nope, but we likely won't need oil for about 700-1000 years on the order
>>the Saudis can supply it.
> 
> 
> How do you figure that?
> 
> http://www.bp.com/downloads/1612/statistical_review.pdf
> 
> page 4
> 
> 
>>BTW, the Iraqis could put everyone out of the oil export business, if they
>>wanted to. They could produce oil for about half of what it costs the Saudis,
>>and about 70% of what it costs the Russians.
> 
> 
> And how long would that last?

A few decades at most?  This is actually a fairly short period of time,
as observed models of oil well production volumes are bell curve-shaped.
As new reserves are not being discovered at a pace that would match
the world's increasing consumption -- these pesky development-obsessed
Chinese and south-east Asians! -- some experts expect the worldwide
demand/supply balance to significantly degrade in about 20 years as
production volumes start to fall.
Oil wells, and oil-producing regions, cannot continue to produce at
their maximum recorded volumes until their reserves are exhausted.
In practice, after increasing from production start and reaching a
peak, the volumes extracted from a well then go down.
Simple calculations based on "proven" reserve volumes divided by
current annual production volumes are thus misleading.  Due to price
inelasticities, oil prices might shoot up to early 1980 levels -- USD
80 per barrel? -- with disastrous effects on all countries' economic
growth, and possibly food supplies.  People tend to overlook how
energy- intensive modern agriculture is, relying on industrial
fertilizers, herbicides and mechanized production methods.

The global geopolitical situation in 20 or 30 years might get, well,
quite "interesting".
Compared to Japan, for example, the US consumes about double the amount
of non-renewable energy for every dollar of GDP.  Unless the US take
significant steps to either secure inexpensive and reliable oil supplies
or significantly reduce their energy consumption in the next 20 years,
their way of life is headed for serious trouble...