On Sun, 28 Nov 2004 19:57:47 -0000, "Nebulous"
<Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote:

>
>"MacHamish" <russj41@concentric.net> wrote in message
>news:173kq01naa5t0ddm0jpu0rn6jh9q2nj19o@4ax.com...
>> On Sun, 28 Nov 2004 08:58:47 -0000, "Nebulous"
>> <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> >"Jim Stewart" <stewart@ceet.niu.edu> wrote in message
>> >news:cob5jo$fcc$1@usenet.cso.niu.edu...
>> >>
>> >> "Nebulous" <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
>> >> news:41a8e4b3$0$19154$cc9e4d1f@news-text.dial.pipex.com...
>> >> >
>> >> > "MacHamish" <russj41@concentric.net> wrote in message
>> >> > news:u4fhq0ddcl6djfvbqocv5a68fcj2obabs8@4ax.com...
>> >> > > On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 17:30:36 -0000, "Nebulous"
>> >> > > <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote:
>> >> > > >Actually he should have bought Euro's.
>> >>
>> >> The fact that he did not places a shadow on his genusness. Hindsight is
>> >> always easy.
>> >>
>> >
>> >It was intended as a joke Jim. If he got out of dollars and into gold he
>has
>> >done very well, and much better than most people, although he has
>> >contributed in his own small way to the demise of the dollar. I was
>trying
>> >to suggest he should instead have done something (invest in Europe)  I
>felt
>> >he would find difficult to justify to himself.
>>
>> By investing in gold, I covered all the bases.  Gold is the only true
>"store
>> of value".  Gold is (solid) money.  There will be a time to divest my
>> holdings and move to something else.  For now, I'm comfortable with my
>> positions.
>
>Yet for about 20 years from 1980 it would have been an extremely poor
>investment. It still hasn't done very much in pound sterling terms.

Gold was actually a bit higher than it is today in 1983 ($510) and 1987.
From a high of $500 in December of 1987, gold began a long slide down to
$255 in August of 1999.  That's when I started investing in Gold shares.
Gold closed at $451 on Friday.  I didn't know I was getting it at a bottom,
but the chart looked like it didn't have much down-side and plenty of
up-side potential.  It has worked out that way so far, and I don't think
it's over.


>> >> > > Yes, when it indexed in the 80's vs. the 130's, but even at that,
>it
>> >> > hasn't
>> >> > > outperformed gold over roughly the same time frame.  I'd much
>rather
>> >> > > speculate on gold than the vagaries of an individual currency.  It
>> >> spreads
>> >> > > the risk.  It's also easier.
>> >>
>> >> We have had three swings in gold in the past 40 years. In allcases,
>most
>> >> investors
>> >> do better in the market.
>> >> > >
>> >> > > >Either way each individuals flight from the dollar contributes to
>its
>> >> > > >problems. America has to increase interest rates and tighten its
>> >belt.
>> >> > >
>> >> At the cost of more jobs and an increase in the homeless.
>> >>
>> >
>> >Yes- as I've just said to MacHamish the free market is very unforgiving.
>If
>> >it had been done a year ago it would not have hurt nearly so many people
>as
>> >it is now likely too. Its either that or continue to watch the dollar
>slide.
>>
>> I'm for watching the dollar slide.  It's a necessary adjustment that has
>to
>> play itself out.  I'm not personally responsible for any of these
>problems,
>> but shame on me if I fail to read them correctly and take advantage of
>> whatever opportunities they provide.
>>
>It doesn't usually play itself out until you correct the underlying imbance.
>
>Looking after yourself and yours is about all you can do. It doesn't help
>your country though, which needs you all in dollars.

It's not like I don't have any dollars.  :-)

BTW, the dollar index has been this low before, three times as recently as
the early 90's.  I can't find a longer term chart, but I seem to recall that
it was considerably lower a few years before that, maybe during the 70's.

MacHamish M�$(D??r