"Madra Dubh" <ccaine@worldnet.att.net> wrote in message
news:Fgsqd.69351$7i4.59219@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net...
>
> "Nebulous" <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
> news:41aa2d8c$0$19154$cc9e4d1f@news-text.dial.pipex.com...
> >
> > "MacHamish" <russj41@concentric.net> wrote in message
> > news:173kq01naa5t0ddm0jpu0rn6jh9q2nj19o@4ax.com...
> >> On Sun, 28 Nov 2004 08:58:47 -0000, "Nebulous"
> >> <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote:
> >>
> >> >
> >> >"Jim Stewart" <stewart@ceet.niu.edu> wrote in message
> >> >news:cob5jo$fcc$1@usenet.cso.niu.edu...
> >> >>
> >> >> "Nebulous" <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
> >> >> news:41a8e4b3$0$19154$cc9e4d1f@news-text.dial.pipex.com...
> >> >> >
> >> >> > "MacHamish" <russj41@concentric.net> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:u4fhq0ddcl6djfvbqocv5a68fcj2obabs8@4ax.com...
> >> >> > > On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 17:30:36 -0000, "Nebulous"
> >> >> > > <Nebulous@pigtail.freeserve.co.uk> wrote:
> >> >> > > >Actually he should have bought Euro's.
> >> >>
> >> >> The fact that he did not places a shadow on his genusness. Hindsight
> >> >> is
> >> >> always easy.
> >> >>
> >> >
> >> >It was intended as a joke Jim. If he got out of dollars and into gold
he
> > has
> >> >done very well, and much better than most people, although he has
> >> >contributed in his own small way to the demise of the dollar. I was
> > trying
> >> >to suggest he should instead have done something (invest in Europe)  I
> > felt
> >> >he would find difficult to justify to himself.
> >>
> >> By investing in gold, I covered all the bases.  Gold is the only true
> > "store
> >> of value".  Gold is (solid) money.  There will be a time to divest my
> >> holdings and move to something else.  For now, I'm comfortable with my
> >> positions.
> >
> > Yet for about 20 years from 1980 it would have been an extremely poor
> > investment. It still hasn't done very much in pound sterling terms.
> >
> >> >> > > Yes, when it indexed in the 80's vs. the 130's, but even at
that,
> > it
> >> >> > hasn't
> >> >> > > outperformed gold over roughly the same time frame.  I'd much
> > rather
> >> >> > > speculate on gold than the vagaries of an individual currency.
It
> >> >> spreads
> >> >> > > the risk.  It's also easier.
> >> >>
> >> >> We have had three swings in gold in the past 40 years. In allcases,
> > most
> >> >> investors
> >> >> do better in the market.
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > >Either way each individuals flight from the dollar contributes
to
> > its
> >> >> > > >problems. America has to increase interest rates and tighten
its
> >> >belt.
> >> >> > >
> >> >> At the cost of more jobs and an increase in the homeless.
> >> >>
> >> >
> >> >Yes- as I've just said to MacHamish the free market is very
unforgiving.
> > If
> >> >it had been done a year ago it would not have hurt nearly so many
people
> > as
> >> >it is now likely too. Its either that or continue to watch the dollar
> > slide.
> >>
> >> I'm for watching the dollar slide.  It's a necessary adjustment that
has
> > to
> >> play itself out.  I'm not personally responsible for any of these
> > problems,
> >> but shame on me if I fail to read them correctly and take advantage of
> >> whatever opportunities they provide.
> >>
> > It doesn't usually play itself out until you correct the underlying
> > imbance.
> >
> > Looking after yourself and yours is about all you can do. It doesn't
help
> > your country though, which needs you all in dollars.
>
> Neb, how many times have we gone down this road?
> I remember when it was going to be the Japanese that were going to clean
our
> plow and we'd all end up serving Sushi to and cleaning the benjos of our
new
> economic masters. Remember when the Japanese economy was "invincible"? And
> all the world cheered whenever the dollar took another drop against the
Yen.
>
> Then there were the Germans. No one could stand against their economy.
They
> were ubermensch and would come to utterly dominate America. And all the
> world cheered whenever the dollar took another drop against the Yen.
>
> And let's not forget the Arabs whose oil reserves would guarantee the
demise
> of the United States.
>
> So............................
> What do you think will happen this time as all the world cheers whenever
the
> dollar takes another drop against the Euro.
>
> My advice?
> Always bet on the winner. It is a paying strategy.
>

You're being a tad overdramatic Madra. You have the biggest economy on earth
by some margin and I'm certainly not cheering at the drop in the dollar.
These things come in swings and roundabouts. However the dollar is dropping
because of your indebtedness and it wont stop until you resolve that. Curing
it will be painful. It would have been less painful if you had done it a
year ago, and it will be more painful if you wait another year, although I
doubt if you can afford to.

Interesting examples you gave though, because the Japanese, Germans and
Arabs all shovelled money at the dollar as quickly as they could to try and
shore it up. They certainly weren't cheering either as dollar weakness is an
issue for them all.  There is no-one in global terms doing well enough to
pull off that stroke at the moment- at least as far as I can see. .

Neb