Kevin Gowen wrote:

> The average American is 9.7 times more likely to die than a bum.

Firstly, you're late, Kevin; you were beaten to it about a week ago (see
http://www.cruel.com/discuss/viewTopic.php/145539).

Secondly, you are being frivolous to the point of scarcely deserving a
rational reply, but I'm going to give you one anyway.

Obviously there is something wrong with the figures. We don't know how the
National Coalition of the Homeless arrives at its figures either for the
number of deaths (perhaps, for example, they only counted those who actually
died on the street, as opposed to those who who were whisked off to spend
their dying hours in a hostel or hospital) or for the total number of
homeless people (though I believe the figure of 3.5 million refers to the
number of people who experience homelessness at some stage during the year;
the head count on any given night is much lower).

However, we do know that the average age of death of homeless people is much
lower than that of the general population. In San Francisco, for example, it
is 41 (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00015783.htm). Among the
general population the death rate among people aged 25-44 is about 1.8 per
1,000 (http://www.disastercenter.com/cdc/), but if the average age of death
on the streets is around 40, then the death rate among homeless people aged
25-44 must be in the region of 30 to 50 per 1,000.

This means that either the homeless don't live long enough to die at a ripe
old age or a majority of older people are being siphoned off into some form
of care. Either way, you'd do better to reason that your chances of living
past 40 are much better if you have a roof over your head than to take to
the streets under the delusion that you're 10 times more likely to die in a
house than lying destitute in an alley.

But I suspect you already know that, and that your suggestions to the
contrary are as hollow and meaningless - not to mention tasteless - as most
of what you post.

Happy New Year!

--
John
http://rarebooksinjapan.com