"The Big Red Mirage"



By Jonathan Wachs

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer



Pythagoras, the Greek mathematician and philosopher, had a lot of influence
on philosophy and religion in the late 6th century BC. In the 21st century,
his teachings can help make you some money at the sportsbook.

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning
percentage, given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill
James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is
calculated by

               (Runs
Scored)^1.83--------------------------------------------------------- (Runs
Scored)^1.83 +  (Runs Allowed)^1.83

That formula had smart bettors betting against the Washington Nationals
during the second half of last year, despite their fast start. Another team
to pay attention to this year is the Reds. Using this formula, their winning
percentage should be .541 instead of the .704 clip they are playing at thus
far this season.



Now, you don't need to be a mathematician to know something is a bit fishy
about the Reds' torrid start. Looking at the newspaper on opening day and
seeing Aaron Harang as the starter had to make you wonder how this team
could possibly escape the NL Central cellar. Bronson Arroyo has been a
godsend early on, but how will he do the second time around the league? The
aforementioned Aaron Harang has a 4-1 record, but a very mediocre 4.35
Earned Run Average. Brandon Claussen and Dave Williams have ERAs  over 6.00.
This kind of pitching will clearly burn out a bullpen and catch up to the
Reds as the season progresses.  The ballpark, which is one of baseball's
easiest-to-hit homeruns, will further tax the pitching staff.



Speaking of that soon-to-be-overworked bullpen, was anyone racing to grab
closer David Weathers in your fantasy draft? Weathers has a reputation for
having a rubber arm more than actual "stuff." And even that rubber-arm
reputation is up for debate. In each of the last two years, he has faltered
in one of the last two months of the season. Last year, he had a 7.15 ERA in
September and in 2004, he had a 6.75 ERA in August.



No one can dispute that the Reds put out a very competitive lineup every
game. Adam Dunn is one of the league's top power hitters; Edwin Encarnacion
is a promising young hitter; and Rich Aurilla, Austin Kearns and Brandon
Phillips have all turned their careers in the right direction. All this, and
Ken Griffey, Jr., will soon return.



The Reds lead the NL in on-base percentage with .364, but the pitching staff
is near the bottom with a 1.40 WHIP. This is a team that will play a lot of
10-9 games. That's no way to win a pennant, and games like that will
eventually wear out the offense as much as the pitching staff.



Don't be fooled by their fast start. This team will be a lot of fun to
watch, but this is not the Big Red Machine you're witnessing; it's the Big
Red Mirage. Bet the over when the Reds are playing, but be ready to bet
against them as the season wears on.



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