On Oct 19, 12:34 pm, mtfes...@netMAPSONscape.net wrote:
> Declan Murphy <declan_mur...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > On Oct 19, 1:55?am, mtfes...@netMAPSONscape.net wrote:
> > > Declan Murphy <declan_mur...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > > > On Oct 18, 10:28?pm, CL <flot...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > > > > Declan Murphy wrote:
> > > > > > You say you pissed away your Manifest Destiny? Yes, yes, I understand.
> > > > > >http://www.mcsweeneys.net/2009/9/25hahn.html
> > > > > > Ouch.
>
> > > > > That's, like, *SO* Bush Administration ...
> > > > Wishful thinking Charlie. Since Bomama was elected (thankfully), is
> > > > Merika some less "obsessed with breasts. No breast is too massive, too
> > > > bouncy, too tan, too exposed"? methinks not.
> > > > I just think its too late. The (fortunately USD$ denominated) debt
> > > > will be repayable, but only by monetary financing, which will
> > > > necessitate a lower UDS$/rest-of-world exchange rate than would
> > > > otherwise be the case. Bretton-Woods is dead. "G20 stuff" is a
> > > > temporary thang, and we will have 3 or maybe 4 currencies acting
>
>                                         ^^^^^^^^^^^^
>
> > > > (simultaneously) as reserve currencies during the next 10-25 years or
> > > > so.
>
> > > Yeah, I can just see China floating the yuan...
> > Why would the PBC want to or need to float? The yuan isn't a reserve
> > currency, or even a major traded currency, and isn't likely to be for
> > about a generation. They won't even need to think about a dirty float
> > or banded ERM for another 15 years or so.
>
> So what other currencies did you have in mind? Yen? Rupees? Sparkly dust?

I kinda like the sound of sparkly dust as a future currency unit.
Rupees won't be used as a reserve for the same reasons as the yuan. My
guess is a mix of USD$, Euro, Sterling and Yen will act as reserve,
Brent Index will switch to euro sometime before 2020, and that US
treasuries will need to be priced at least 25-50 basis points higher
than would otherwise be the case due to exchange rate risk associated
with gradual depreciation as the US Fed inflates away some of the
debt. My other guess is that I will need to learn more about
Californian wine.