On Dec 27, 3:29 pm, mtfes...@netMAPSONscape.net wrote:
> John W. <worthj1...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Dec 24, 9:35?am, mtfes...@netMAPSONscape.net wrote:
> > > Declan Murphy <declan_mur...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > > > On Dec 23, 1:56?pm, mtfes...@netMAPSONscape.net wrote:
> > > > > 1) What's the rush?
> > > > There would normally be no need to rush. At the moment though,
> > > > uncertainty over future fiscal policy (taxation & gross public sector
> > > > expenditure) is exacerbating the slowdown in domestic demand. If the
>
> > > Difficult to see what can be enacted in a couple days that will change
> > > this measurably.
>
> > > In the meantime, there is a sense of gathering optimism (which you
> > > seem to share, for some reason) that the "next guy will fix it". Very
> > > likely, this slows, not hastens, any decline.
>
> > This last statement is very true and very worrying for me. It shows
> > that we really aren't learning anything from this fix we're in. And I
> > don't think we're in an awful mess, yet. But I think it could get bad.
>
> We're in an awful mess, but have been for a long time. However, there is
> no real precedent for some our problems. After all, any moves against the
> US currency (which is what we pay our bills in) will severely impact all
> exporting nations (other than the US) and any nation holding significant
> reserves in US dollars (which is nearly every major economy.)

In the short run (5-10 years), I don't think the US dollar is in any
danger of ceasing to be the primary reserve currency, or at least one
of the two primary reserve currencies. The Brent index (oil) will
eventually shift from the USD to Euro, and part of the petrodollar
market will also leak to euro, but most non-european banks and central
banks will shift the weighting of dollars to euro at a slower pace.
If the CAD continues to exceed 5% each and every year through to 2020,
then from there on US importers and banks will need to start hedging
to a greater degree.